NFL · resolved market
Will Christian McCaffrey play Week 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7dafaedf680b922a59874b100f2a7f049f1782ec3c662fd6c50c18c25752a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 1c | 1,632$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 9c | 965.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 501.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 324.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea6…2af8backed Yes | 75c | 302.22$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked No | 30c | 260.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 17c | 196.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked Yes | 59c | 192.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc015…bdf8backed Yes | 63c | 146.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…0bbabacked Yes | 71c | 141.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…38fabacked No | 23c | 129.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…07c2backed No | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd4…0512backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…2b67backed No | 29c | 57.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked No | 27c | 49.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 66c | 45.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2a31backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…fa94backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…8c65backed Yes | 80c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.