Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Sam Shankland vs Richard Rapport (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb55132af3044f792bd7b3d017fae0ff8ccfe743c31968baf90ceef087a06f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanklandof Shankland, Rapport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…01a8backed Shankland | 27c | 526.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Rapport | 76c | 309.06$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Rapport | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Rapport | 26c | 105.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Shankland | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…4368backed Shankland | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Rapport | 76c | 86.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Rapport | 73c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Rapport | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Rapport | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Shankland | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Shankland | 24c | 52.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Rapport | 75c | 51.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Shankland | 74c | 50.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rapport | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Rapport | 75c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Rapport | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed Rapport | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…c27abacked Rapport | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…af25backed Rapport | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.