CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lavked (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafc64504d0412fc32d7e4a8c59e876f543f9b401df8fec211dcaf6103b8751d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavkedof G2 Ares, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Lavked | 66c | 6,240$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.95 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Lavked | 63c | 2,978$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.85 | 853 | 58.3%497 W · 356 L | +60.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…7f92backed G2 Ares | 37c | 2,592$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…b4d8backed G2 Ares | 34c | 1,921$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed G2 Ares | 34c | 1,615$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.06 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed G2 Ares | 35c | 823.71$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…13a1backed G2 Ares | 35c | 665.15$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed G2 Ares | 35c | 480.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed G2 Ares | 32c | 479.16$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.53 | 1,594 | 29.7%473 W · 1,121 L | -88.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lavked | 68c | 450.01$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,178 | 54.5%642 W · 536 L | -36.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Lavked | 64c | 369.56$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 652 | 54.3%354 W · 298 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked G2 Ares | 36c | 326.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed G2 Ares | 37c | 264.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked G2 Ares | 34c | 232.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed G2 Ares | 37c | 220.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…516cbacked Lavked | 77c | 217.13$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked G2 Ares | 26c | 189.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed G2 Ares | 35c | 139.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1,087 | 37.5%408 W · 679 L | +33.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked G2 Ares | 36c | 129.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed G2 Ares | 19c | 116.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked G2 Ares | 15c | 115.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18e…706dbacked G2 Ares | 35c | 115.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…d301backed G2 Ares | 34c | 94.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked G2 Ares | 37c | 86.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed G2 Ares | 34c | 86.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…cc6abacked Lavked | 64c | 79.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…8935backed G2 Ares | 35c | 72.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Lavked | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 700 | 32%224 W · 476 L | -45.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed G2 Ares | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,041 | 39.9%415 W · 626 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Lavked | 63c | 46.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 218 | 55%120 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Lavked | 80c | 43.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed G2 Ares | 37c | 42.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed G2 Ares | 36c | 42.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked G2 Ares | 31c | 40.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 265 | 46.8%124 W · 141 L | -18.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked Lavked | 66c | 35.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -6.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked G2 Ares | 39c | 27.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Lavked | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lavked | 75c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Lavked | 64c | 24.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 662 | 48.6%322 W · 340 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…c0b6backed Lavked | 80c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Lavked | 64c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lavked (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lavked - Map 2 WinnerLavked won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.