South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03f50041bdd08bf4e664d3d2edf15f2a3230ee7ed6f0768149fab93746cd0d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 1,747$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 6c | 1,702$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 25c | 1,178$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.47 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 22c | 460.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 18c | 204.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 196.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Over | 19c | 170.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 163.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 16c | 113.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 72c | 82.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e874backed Over | 14c | 78.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 21c | 71.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 22c | 71.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Over | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -53%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 20c | 57.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 80c | 35.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Under | 80c | 31.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Necaxa vs. Mazatlán FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Club Necaxa (-1.5)Mazatlán FC won
- Spread: Mazatlán FC (-1.5)Club Necaxa won
- Spread: Mazatlán FC (-2.5)Club Necaxa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.