Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb040b0d71d4f2db7d6d8ae6d56252f8dc9a565207a7ca372923403b74a790202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Fritz, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Fritz | 38c | 999.93$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.97 | 290 | 45.9%133 W · 157 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Nakashima | 63c | 909.9$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.48 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Fritz | 11c | 472.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 4,875 | 41.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L | -77.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 61c | 344.56$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…04b8backed Fritz | 37c | 328.95$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Fritz | 37c | 263.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 488 | 47.1%230 W · 258 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Fritz | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Nakashima | 62c | 230$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Nakashima | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 441 | 51.9%229 W · 212 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Fritz | 39c | 187.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Nakashima | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 143 | 60.1%86 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fritz | 36c | 153.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Nakashima | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc7…f7debacked Fritz | 39c | 126.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Fritz | 37c | 101.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Nakashima | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Nakashima | 61c | 54.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…77aabacked Nakashima | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…9980backed Nakashima | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…60a2backed Nakashima | 64c | 38.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…c146backed Nakashima | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a9…96ecbacked Nakashima | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
- Nakashima vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs FritzFritz won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs FritzNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.