Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f35c1cdba9188a9867839a1192f864e448d532565e79a1a67f06c02e511f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Nakashima, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 41c | 1,434$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.96 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Fritz | 62c | 810.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.78 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fritz | 61c | 714.56$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.34 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Nakashima | 40c | 515.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.18 | 386 | 46.4%179 W · 207 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Fritz | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Fritz | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 488 | 47.1%230 W · 258 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…04b8backed Fritz | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…9488backed Fritz | 61c | 442.49$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.57 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Fritz | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 1,141 | 47.2%539 W · 602 L | +65.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fritz | 56c | 340$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 40c | 339.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Nakashima | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Nakashima | 40c | 205.54$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 600 | 42%252 W · 348 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Fritz | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Nakashima | 8c | 128.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,920 | 55.4%1,064 W · 856 L | -44.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nakashima | 36c | 121.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Fritz | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Nakashima | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nakashima | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 55c | 43.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Fritz | 58c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fritzthis page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
- Nakashima vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs FritzNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.