Premier League · resolved market
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04571b56ee91ff908ee5f7e4b709e0511b68226ce44772c7f5713e9a11d6f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 60c | 810.52$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 55c | 535.24$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 54c | 458.36$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.95 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 401.92$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.74 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 399.34$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 66c | 394.25$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.48 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 12c | 355$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 284.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.62 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Over | 43c | 174$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 45c | 171.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.21 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 45c | 166$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 45c | 165.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 55c | 145.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 103.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 54c | 87.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 51c | 71.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 69.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…0924backed Under | 45c | 63.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 55.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 53.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 51.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 57c | 50.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -10.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Over | 41c | 39.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 54c | 34.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 45c | 31.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 22.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: Charlton Athletic FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Charlton Athletic FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Charlton Athletic FC (-2.5)Derby County FC won
- Spread: Derby County FC (-1.5)Charlton Athletic FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.