MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb052c370d99fc3d6a91f787b01e74caf374a8a3ed02746051ba9c9151d00f836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,094 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed San Diego Padres | 0c | 3,699$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 2,144$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.53 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 1,501$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.02 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 835$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.95 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 730.88$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.71 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 421$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.83 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 227.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 218.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 203.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 75c | 186.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 166$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed San Diego Padres | 8c | 124.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…247dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…ef02backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 55.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…4523backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 47.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 39.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.