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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9506…1c4fbacked No78c397.62$312 inLost-$311.9589259.8%533 W · 359 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No9c391.98$35 inLost-$34.991,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c290.64$52 inWon+$238.492,23023.8%531 W · 1,699 L+89.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c215$49 inWon+$165.893,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No77c129.35$100 inLost-$99.62,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c111.15$63 inLost-$63.1612,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No78c110$86 inLost-$85.71,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No80c100$80 inLost-$804,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No35c100$35 inLost-$3522116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes20c100$20 inWon+$8017338.2%66 W · 107 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba9d…46efbacked Yes23c99.97$23 inWon+$76.987330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes23c89.15$20 inWon+$69.0742630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes32c69.41$22 inWon+$46.991,37020.7%283 W · 1,087 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No25c68.64$17 inLost-$17.362,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0d…0885backed Yes16c64.75$10 inWon+$54.35334%18 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+82.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes50c56.76$29 inWon+$28.212,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No59c55.95$33 inLost-$32.882,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c39.99$12 inLost-$123,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes69c39.78$27 inWon+$12.41,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9cd1backed Yes31c39.33$12 inWon+$27540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c32.36$20 inLost-$20.3212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes34c32$11 inWon+$21.0254658.8%321 W · 225 L+47.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes76c31.66$24 inWon+$7.6654238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c30$12 inWon+$17.66,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No53c26.84$14 inLost-$14.159422.4%23 W · 919 L-388.2wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.4%equal weight5-0.40 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No77c25.47$20 inLost-$19.6157158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No77c25$19 inLost-$19.2518939.7%75 W · 114 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c23$18 inLost-$18.49,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes70c21.29$15 inWon+$6.4417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3594…cd28backed No65c20$13 inLost-$135556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No78c17.96$14 inLost-$13.997266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes59c16.97$10 inWon+$6.971,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No76c16.31$12 inLost-$12.3955942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c15.99$11 inLost-$10.725,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.