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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,636 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba9d…46efbacked Yes63c315.36$200 inLost-$2007330.1%22 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes14c299.53$42 inLost-$41.6949024.9%122 W · 368 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c238.16$40 inLost-$39.523,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c157.25$17 inLost-$16.5410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes14c140.89$20 inLost-$19.624,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes44c127.52$56 inLost-$55.5942630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0d…0885backed Yes61c126.25$77 inLost-$76.565334%18 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+82.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No29c125.83$37 inWon+$88.851,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes72c119.54$86 inLost-$86.3135648.6%173 W · 183 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc31f…f04abacked Yes77c114.43$88 inLost-$87.719683.3%80 W · 16 L+20.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+55.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2b15…9cd1backed Yes30c100$30 inLost-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$122,83911.2%317 W · 2,522 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes45c99.99$45 inLost-$44.7312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No53c97.23$52 inWon+$45.351,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed No27c93.47$25 inWon+$68.2325443.7%111 W · 143 L+27.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c85$51 inWon+$33.612,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No73c82.38$60 inWon+$21.95,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed No47c70.83$34 inWon+$37.245930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inWon+$491,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes48c60.55$29 inLost-$29.112,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No33c59$20 inWon+$39.3117436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes57c58.75$34 inLost-$33.61,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No75c58.08$44 inWon+$14.2554658.8%321 W · 225 L+47.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes29c51.46$15 inLost-$15.0337434.8%130 W · 244 L+0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No43c50.13$22 inWon+$28.5930041%123 W · 177 L+26.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c50$17 inWon+$32.76,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes40c47.46$19 inLost-$18.792,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes38c40.24$15 inLost-$15.092,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked No80c40$32 inWon+$83080%24 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c40$12 inWon+$283,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes38c34.84$13 inLost-$13.345,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes73c33.73$25 inLost-$24.7647436.7%174 W · 300 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No54c31$17 inWon+$14.1817262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c30.53$13 inLost-$13.226,89139.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L+269.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes48c29.22$14 inLost-$14.129422.4%23 W · 919 L-388.2wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.4%equal weight5-0.40 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes44c27$12 inLost-$11.9816252.5%85 W · 77 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7240…9906backed Yes57c25.33$14 inLost-$14.445547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40be…e067backed Yes72c23.5$17 inLost-$16.943863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No62c20$12 inWon+$7.6521363.4%135 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c17.99$14 inWon+$3.785,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.