Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0575caf56dc4f5fd4fa115ca24a2d5dd50f78a539d739a3cf0636dea966b783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 49c | 1,823$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.78 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 51c | 1,464$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.9 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed No | 3c | 1,288$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 1,019$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 52c | 340.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Yes | 36c | 307.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes | 49c | 62.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 50c | 38.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…92babacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Yes | 64c | 35.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…d623backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked No | 64c | 24.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.