South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b6290b78632092e35cc22cbe56cb0b0a8a0e16403951ba8233ee97f6d784d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 6,805$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.15 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…1021backed Yes | 18c | 1,056$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 15c | 724.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…ed8dbacked Yes | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 391.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 297.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 17c | 168.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 18c | 158.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Yes | 18c | 157.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Yes | 17c | 121.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 18c | 105.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…bfaabacked Yes | 18c | 105.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 18c | 97.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Yes | 17c | 95.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37cc…d652backed Yes | 17c | 95.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…aa8fbacked Yes | 18c | 94.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 18c | 88.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 18c | 67.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.