Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mrva (-1.5) vs Kumstat (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b6cbcfa9fb0f0e43f7e9801d96ae3d6f910bb16d32b68e44857f6043184f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kumstatof Mrva, Kumstat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Kumstat | 75c | 15,681$11,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,965.97 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mrva | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Mrva | 25c | 4,307$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.57 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Mrva | 25c | 3,033$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.29 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Mrva | 26c | 2,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.53 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mrva | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Mrva | 25c | 157.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Mrva | 26c | 131.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Mrva | 26c | 131.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Mrva | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Mrva | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Kumstat | 70c | 32.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kumstat | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Kumstat | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mrva (-1.5) vs Kumstat (+1.5)this page
- Prague 2: Completed Match: Maxim Mrva vs Jan KumstatYes won
- Prague 2: Maxim Mrva vs Jan KumstatJan Kumstat won
- Set 1 Winner: Mrva vs KumstatKumstat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.