Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0c13ce09885d74f39b3d6b2977dfc07f1e47ebd8e2ad2a5e74399034048cdd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,719 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,161$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 5,912$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 4,278$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.52 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 16c | 3,476$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 8c | 1,890$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.39 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…e603backed Yes | 7c | 1,041$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 18c | 900$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…6535backed Yes | 17c | 560.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 15c | 499.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 4c | 470$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f5…b09cbacked Yes | 18c | 438.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d8…028cbacked Yes | 18c | 431.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…4059backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…9ed6backed Yes | 18c | 323.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 6c | 318.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 17c | 279.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 18c | 270$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 16c | 256.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 7c | 245.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 196.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 17c | 172.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…a292backed Yes | 16c | 132.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…6002backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…73eebacked Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 62.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…fe90backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.