Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0587dbbc098e93fb8abd82f9c5ea13f9e566eeb1e0e8257a6638ebb098a1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,351 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…13cdbacked No | 80c | 8,631$6,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 5,277$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 21c | 5,157$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 2,310$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.71 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,099$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 966.84$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.97 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 8c | 948.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…ce29backed Yes | 12c | 940.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 80c | 872$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…f012backed Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 657.23$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 21c | 607.2$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…65acbacked Yes | 22c | 457.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 344$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 21c | 304.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…2421backed Yes | 16c | 245.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 21c | 199.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…8e15backed No | 80c | 173.02$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…8d59backed No | 80c | 154.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 80c | 141$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…8c8fbacked No | 80c | 130.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 11c | 117.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 22c | 95.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 21c | 63.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…92acbacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 79c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.