College Football · resolved market
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0df4ed55295fd749381ab21c6862adf10e9038ea083527bf366cba8fb1092f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnatiof Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oklahoma State | 8c | 42,430$3,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.23 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 20,174$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.43 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Oklahoma State | 6c | 8,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 3,153$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Oklahoma State | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oklahoma State | 9c | 1,679$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.74 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…6e97backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Oklahoma State | 8c | 1,400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oklahoma State | 6c | 1,022$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oklahoma State | 6c | 754$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Oklahoma State | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oklahoma State | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Oklahoma State | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Oklahoma State | 8c | 149.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Oklahoma State | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Cincinnati | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma Statethis page
- Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 58.5Over won
- O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati (-23.5)Cincinnati won
- Spread: Cincinnati (-24.5)Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.