Tennis · resolved market
ITF Changwon: Meiqi Guo vs Arina Varaksina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb119f185b4ae9871ae015544a64f8d78b21f2368f6e84366722f10d8cc792502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arina Varaksinaof Meiqi Guo, Arina Varaksina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arina Varaksina | 21c | 599.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.48 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Meiqi Guo | 30c | 321.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arina Varaksina | 58c | 189.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Meiqi Guo | 47c | 164.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arina Varaksina | 17c | 151.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Meiqi Guo | 18c | 150.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Meiqi Guo | 55c | 130.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Meiqi Guo | 21c | 109.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,144 | 47.2%540 W · 604 L | +64.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Meiqi Guo | 27c | 84.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Arina Varaksina | 25c | 79.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Arina Varaksina | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arina Varaksina | 71c | 64.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Arina Varaksina | 20c | 57.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arina Varaksina | 28c | 50.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Arina Varaksina | 34c | 36.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Meiqi Guo | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Meiqi Guo | 64c | 26.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Meiqi Guo | 71c | 24.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Meiqi Guo | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Meiqi Guo | 70c | 22.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.