Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12c54d2798d7cf0f38436d5d7410bbc1aad095276a22a75074dd2c7c32a63fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c1c…56c4backed No | 44c | 1,925$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…b675backed Yes | 56c | 1,925$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes | 66c | 500$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 43c | 467.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.95 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 43c | 458.94$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.08 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 54c | 383$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 56c | 351$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 24c | 298.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.66 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 50c | 243.81$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 68c | 242$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 204.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 199.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 54c | 192.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 45c | 178$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 76c | 173.7$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 167.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 61c | 159.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 67c | 151.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 147.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 70c | 143.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 132.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 67c | 119.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 24c | 112.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 20c | 106.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 92.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 72c | 89.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 84.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 78.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 40c | 75.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…a057backed Yes | 61c | 69.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 17c | 66.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 42c | 64.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 34c | 61.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 50.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 49.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 21c | 48.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 23c | 44.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 36c | 41.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 35.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…b462backed Yes | 59c | 34.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 78c | 27.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 63c | 26.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 72c | 26.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…57c8backed Yes | 63c | 26.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 69c | 25.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 23.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 66c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 66c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 59c | 21.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed Yes | 69c | 15.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e5…df92backed No | 77c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed Yes | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.