Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5345f113c32811b3e71647f536b60d4ddf83d657e4774ccff35b39cbcbeecb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 0c | 6,543$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…c7c3backed Yes | 27c | 4,103$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…853ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,900$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf4…3bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 3,860$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…6101backed Yes | 28c | 3,800$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…ce31backed Yes | 29c | 3,625$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…df25backed Yes | 25c | 2,744$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a1…e078backed No | 73c | 1,405$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…bff1backed No | 73c | 1,398$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfc…2244backed No | 75c | 1,389$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…b71bbacked No | 75c | 1,355$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…27edbacked No | 73c | 1,316$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9164…ee55backed No | 73c | 1,315$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f77…c6a7backed No | 73c | 1,312$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…721bbacked No | 72c | 1,301$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6212…27d0backed No | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…990dbacked No | 73c | 1,280$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…b099backed No | 73c | 1,272$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd90…d574backed No | 71c | 1,265$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…7a59backed No | 73c | 1,265$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…bfa5backed No | 72c | 1,254$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…a158backed No | 72c | 1,245$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…cd9abacked No | 71c | 1,195$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb332…b34ebacked No | 71c | 1,165$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes | 26c | 549.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 18c | 521.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 80c | 429.04$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 399.25$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 383$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 74c | 353.83$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 341.55$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 317.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 303.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 220.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 217.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 195.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 20c | 192.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 178.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 19c | 178$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 22c | 149.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 149$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 69c | 144.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 132.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 130.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed Yes | 30c | 127.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 122.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 110.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 24c | 104.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 80c | 101.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 96.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 90.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 18c | 82.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 81.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…6b9fbacked Yes | 19c | 81.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 79.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 29c | 75.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 15c | 73.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 14c | 73.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 71.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…08bfbacked Yes | 31c | 65.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 17c | 60.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 33c | 56.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 74c | 52.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 29c | 50.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 49.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 48.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 30c | 43.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed No | 80c | 40.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 37c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 74c | 21.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…5fedbacked No | 69c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107e…8367backed Yes | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 75c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.