Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5817dc6a6aaa50b87e8cdb82fa5a8847cd2a3240719b6288677afc92a61a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 969.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 906.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 5c | 725.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.84 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8518…bf6bbacked Yes | 13c | 691.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 680.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.17 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 11c | 570.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.13 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 521.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 4c | 519.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 508.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 2c | 500.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.53 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 383$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 15c | 376.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 15c | 353.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 8c | 344.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.77 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 316.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed Yes | 41c | 297.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 284.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 11c | 280.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.55 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 277.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed Yes | 16c | 224.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 11c | 209.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.71 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 8c | 203.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.6 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 192.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.66 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 190$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 16c | 178$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 162.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 14c | 142.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 55c | 139.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 76c | 130.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 20c | 122.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 98.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes | 19c | 74.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 29c | 72.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 64.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked Yes | 19c | 57.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 19c | 56.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed No | 80c | 39.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 31.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 17.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 77c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.