MLB · resolved market
White Sox vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1339943099b917b624fee309002f37247ac3e3342eb0d43bae0b939fee382b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof White Sox, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1637…9042backed White Sox | 31c | 34,285$10,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,628.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…f2d7backed Royals | 69c | 32,605$22,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,107.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed White Sox | 26c | 1,617$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.29 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122f…0412backed Royals | 69c | 1,278$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 69c | 677.42$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed White Sox | 31c | 677.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 69c | 614$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.34 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed White Sox | 3c | 604.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…dbdebacked Royals | 69c | 480$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Royals | 79c | 476$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked White Sox | 31c | 448$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Royals | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed White Sox | 29c | 389.43$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Royals | 69c | 208.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Royals | 70c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed White Sox | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…3cc1backed White Sox | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Royals | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Royals | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Royals | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Royals | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Royals | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Royals | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.