Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ralph Norman win Spartanburg County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f02dcdc99e1597b85a11acb6082d628c62130b44236e03d58663e5fb917fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,857$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.13 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…ec4cbacked No | 13c | 1,544$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 10c | 451$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 4c | 433.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 10c | 299.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 205.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 127 | 23.6%30 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 9c | 159.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 10c | 107.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…202bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ralph Norman win Spartanburg County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone win Spartanburg County in the South Carolina Special Senate Primary runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.