Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Yoshihito Nishioka vs George Loffhagen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f20b065cac836fd56b706e75dd40f5f000ddc88c39895fef584961219ac2c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Loffhagenof Nishioka, Loffhagen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fdb…6f6bbacked Nishioka | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Nishioka | 61c | 1,723$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Nishioka | 1c | 1,688$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Loffhagen | 32c | 1,475$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Loffhagen | 32c | 887$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.16 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Loffhagen | 50c | 696.43$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.97 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Loffhagen | 36c | 636.04$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.62 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Loffhagen | 34c | 490.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.47 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf81…80cebacked Nishioka | 50c | 458$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nishioka | 20c | 407.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Loffhagen | 35c | 366.58$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.07 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…d251backed Nishioka | 58c | 343.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Loffhagen | 43c | 217.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Nishioka | 25c | 195.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Loffhagen | 69c | 152.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Nishioka | 70c | 142.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Nishioka | 70c | 142.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Nishioka | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Loffhagen | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nishioka | 70c | 87.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Nishioka | 23c | 74.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Nishioka | 17c | 63.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Loffhagen | 41c | 59.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Nishioka | 42c | 40.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Nishioka | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Nishioka | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…6fbdbacked Loffhagen | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Nishioka | 65c | 17.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.