TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: VDN (-1.5) vs The Ruddy Sack (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Verdantof Verdant, The Ruddy Sack
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,004 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked Verdant75c1,998$1,498 inWon+$499.451,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked The Ruddy Sack22c687.69$151 inLost-$151.232458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed The Ruddy Sack34c500$170 inLost-$17041343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf34a…710cbacked The Ruddy Sack22c363.64$80 inLost-$8070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8562…0a61backed The Ruddy Sack22c200$44 inLost-$441338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked The Ruddy Sack22c199.86$44 inLost-$43.973135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed The Ruddy Sack22c47.05$10 inLost-$10.353030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-37%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.