Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2572ced2a24fc6521752719ae978bdf5f92bee1179d06307c5f46fb7e83d1ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 3,433$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.91 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 2,882$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 1,553$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.07 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,235$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 106.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 49c | 49.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.41per pick | 51cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5470backed Over | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.