Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b7295bf1532ba13f5de92d9b6a3ea8d54a637d52dfaf9eb2d88e3e667fc752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfL Wolfsburgof VfL Wolfsburg, Union Berlin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked VfL Wolfsburg | 23c | 10,227$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,835.01 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Union Berlin | 75c | 4,839$3,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Union Berlin | 77c | 1,243$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed VfL Wolfsburg | 38c | 1,127$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.74 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 988.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.73 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 559.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.61 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Union Berlin | 77c | 388.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.32 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Union Berlin | 78c | 210.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed VfL Wolfsburg | 21c | 209.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.85 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed VfL Wolfsburg | 20c | 203.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Union Berlin | 77c | 152.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed VfL Wolfsburg | 21c | 124$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed VfL Wolfsburg | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 91.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed VfL Wolfsburg | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Union Berlin | 78c | 64.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Union Berlin | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 80cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Union Berlin | 77c | 46.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…5365backed Union Berlin | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Union Berlin | 78c | 23.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Union Berlin | 75c | 13.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.