Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f95376942288ff41cbac15461d06f5d576dc67ff8beb2434631aca20d2e7dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 2,183$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.86 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,507$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 827.67$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 27c | 761.52$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.91 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 753.42$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 526.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.05 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 47c | 199.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 52c | 52.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 45.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…8539backed Under | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.