Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27b1d2098f29b3997c0cc05f6109c3f0416c751f660fb489083297b0fa67c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 52c | 11,076$5,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Yes | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 51c | 8,985$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,382.52 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 7,789$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,384.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.01 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed No | 51c | 4,235$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.45 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…6a47backed Yes | 51c | 1,502$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 62c | 1,459$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.67 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,322$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.61 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 51c | 1,150$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.93 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1910backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…ef8dbacked Yes | 48c | 996.69$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 64c | 611.06$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 71c | 513.85$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.97 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 54c | 510$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 51c | 451.17$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…84b4backed No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 51c | 336.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 55c | 305.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 52c | 296$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 77c | 230.9$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.31 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…aaefbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 59c | 168.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 159.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 26c | 140.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 79c | 132.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Yes | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Yes | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 64c | 85.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 51c | 84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 82.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…e658backed Yes | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 40c | 65.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 41c | 65.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 48c | 60.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 273 | 52.7%144 W · 129 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed No | 51c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed No | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked No | 26c | 46.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 43c | 45.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 50c | 41.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 39.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed No | 51c | 36.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 51c | 33.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…4d26backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 53c | 30.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…c52ebacked Yes | 80c | 29.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 50c | 29.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 63cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 22.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2026-03-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.