Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb28f3672d1842cf13e3d73b763a213d4c1e9c7e04b84d3651af04a5af48a8b19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 68c | 572.74$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 322.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 79c | 315.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 231.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 145.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 79c | 142.54$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 127.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 27c | 109.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 107.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 107.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 24c | 98.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 97.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 71.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 63.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 62.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 52.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 52.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 52c | 52.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 48.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 48c | 44.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 42.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 64c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 76c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 28.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 75c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 25.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 22.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.