UFC · resolved market
Will Ateba Gautier win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a7efe4294b6a93a21f7a6db09c602ec8412f253870e20354a9df4dff1d0294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Yes | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 26c | 2,839$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.23 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 22c | 755.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 17c | 627.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…6cf1backed Yes | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…7eaabacked No | 25c | 112.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7f…0492backed No | 25c | 95.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…9a94backed Yes | 78c | 92.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d6…8267backed No | 26c | 81.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 78c | 74.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes | 79c | 63.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c4bfbacked Yes | 78c | 48.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…23e6backed Yes | 78c | 33.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Yes | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…8845backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe290…f9c5backed Yes | 78c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ateba Gautier win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)Ateba Gautier won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.