UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d19236feb80beb542eacd569f375b465ba5eff4cc4df57005d9f46bdd1e349d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 71c | 15,404$10,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,410.54 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 31c | 15,004$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.82 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed Over | 32c | 5,002$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 68c | 4,680$3,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.95 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 34c | 4,578$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.17 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 72c | 2,004$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.54 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 65c | 1,600$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 67c | 1,594$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.75 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 31c | 1,395$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.23 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 61c | 1,235$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.98 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…1937backed Under | 43c | 696.62$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Under | 69c | 689.98$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 32c | 657.57$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.13 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Under | 66c | 341.03$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 66c | 303.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 31c | 303.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 33c | 300.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…f944backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 46c | 217.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Over | 31c | 167$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Under | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Under | 69c | 143$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…9dedbacked Over | 11c | 120.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…0d66backed Over | 39c | 107.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…0b63backed Under | 64c | 90.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Over | 32c | 77.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Under | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…c324backed Over | 31c | 60.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 36c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Over | 30c | 56.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 69c | 50.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 69c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…737ebacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 69c | 27.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226f…05c2backed Under | 69c | 21.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Under | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 69c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)Ateba Gautier won
- Will Ateba Gautier win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.