NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2b9d19bf99b9ad2d3ed83bfaa813591f5f81d3e5b3b99155ca04970b258135d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Hurricanes, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Hurricanes | 38c | 27,482$10,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,568.22 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Capitals | 61c | 9,393$5,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.39 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Capitals | 61c | 6,657$4,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.38 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Capitals | 63c | 6,240$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,309.23 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Capitals | 61c | 3,332$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.4 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Capitals | 61c | 1,722$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.58 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…e835backed Hurricanes | 36c | 1,537$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 63c | 1,185$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.45 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…202bbacked Capitals | 64c | 850$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c46abacked Capitals | 63c | 672$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Hurricanes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 60c | 446.95$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.78 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Hurricanes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Capitals | 63c | 263.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Hurricanes | 38c | 260.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Hurricanes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Hurricanes | 40c | 175.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Capitals | 63c | 115.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Hurricanes | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Hurricanes | 40c | 37.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Hurricanes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Hurricanes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Hurricanes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Capitals | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. HurricanesCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.