MLB · resolved market
Will the Blue Jays beat the Mariners 4-3
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2baef139b1d418e702ab98c3b4bfa5731a729b4ffb9716ebd6da015bee510d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4750…06ffbacked Yes | 30c | 3,428$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,402.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…da87backed Yes | 56c | 1,849$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 54c | 1,685$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.06 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 69c | 970.21$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.91 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 62c | 316.64$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 45c | 214$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 65c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf359…b879backed Yes | 63c | 78.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +114%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…13d6backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…6e7abacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Mariners 4-3this page
- Will the Blue Jays beat the Mariners 4-2No won
- Will the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 4-2No won
- Will the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 4-3No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.