Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Idaho Vandals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2be97f09b385d6f6564c55d25a54f2e64bfc16202d42dd4c11c7198d65a7b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Idaho Vandals, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,495 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2325…3256backed Idaho Vandals | 57c | 711.8$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.3 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Montana Grizzlies | 43c | 244.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Montana Grizzlies | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 46c | 190.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Montana Grizzlies | 46c | 69.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Idaho Vandals | 56c | 61.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Idaho Vandals | 55c | 59.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Montana Grizzlies | 46c | 54.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Montana Grizzlies | 45c | 34.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Idaho Vandals | 55c | 31.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 47c | 26.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-2.5)this page
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana GrizzliesIdaho Vandals won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 144.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 146.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5)Idaho Vandals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.