Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 146.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa84fa15c1049fdf9bc124de6cfc3df8c5e2a80105515042bba51c66fe97feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,189 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,613$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.8 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 52c | 1,535$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.36 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,157$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 571.96$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.42 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 330.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 51c | 305.68$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…f8afbacked Over | 53c | 225.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 206.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…6bc1backed Under | 48c | 190.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…37f2backed Under | 48c | 187.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…7172backed Over | 53c | 152.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 50c | 99.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Over | 52c | 95.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 70.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 49c | 60.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…2e2abacked Over | 51c | 48.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Under | 48c | 40.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 146.5this page
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana GrizzliesIdaho Vandals won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 144.5Under won
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-2.5)Idaho Vandals won
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5)Idaho Vandals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.