Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Belinda Bencic vs Jasmine Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2c199af2ed02d5e711d2f226058f1c1d9eb1f8737342a14cfaa119db135dc5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paoliniof Bencic, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bencic | 55c | 5,565$3,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bencic | 54c | 2,602$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8d…f2c7backed Bencic | 40c | 2,465$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Paolini | 60c | 2,391$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.15 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bencic | 53c | 1,814$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.09 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Paolini | 45c | 1,471$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.37 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Bencic | 35c | 1,179$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.7 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Paolini | 49c | 1,107$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.25 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Paolini | 60c | 1,083$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Paolini | 60c | 1,029$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Paolini | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Paolini | 64c | 603.95$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bencic | 37c | 500.82$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.45 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Paolini | 50c | 499.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.78 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Paolini | 63c | 483.25$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.1 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Bencic | 38c | 377.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bencic | 39c | 364$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked Paolini | 56c | 342.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Paolini | 61c | 340.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.7 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Paolini | 36c | 312.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.89 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bencic | 45c | 308.65$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Paolini | 35c | 308$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Paolini | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Bencic | 50c | 300$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Paolini | 50c | 299.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Paolini | 40c | 251.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Paolini | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Paolini | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Paolini | 37c | 143.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Paolini | 51c | 139.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Paolini | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Paolini | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Paolini | 41c | 118.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Paolini | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Paolini | 32c | 110.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Paolini | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Paolini | 62c | 72.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Paolini | 66c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Bencic | 37c | 67.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Paolini | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…bdb3backed Paolini | 63c | 58.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bencic | 37c | 56.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Paolini | 74c | 53.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bencic | 36c | 41.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Bencic | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Bencic | 33c | 40.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Bencic | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Bencic | 37c | 39.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Bencic | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…7902backed Paolini | 41c | 36.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bencic | 40c | 26.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bencic | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…9687backed Paolini | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.