CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f542394ab1483ba6d7695e12c13d7d6d45b6a7c8234e5072dd5df3edaa50fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof OG, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 47c | 2,261$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.65 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked OG | 53c | 2,113$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.66 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed OG | 40c | 1,292$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.19 | 328 | 44.8%147 W · 181 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed OG | 41c | 632$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.82 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked OG | 52c | 558.18$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.23 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Fire Flux Esports | 48c | 460.78$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 31c | 209.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…9f8cbacked OG | 50c | 201$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…4e8fbacked OG | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed OG | 39c | 199.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked OG | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Fire Flux Esports | 47c | 97.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Fire Flux Esports | 28c | 78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…54c5backed OG | 39c | 72.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed OG | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed OG | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed Fire Flux Esports | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fire Flux Esports | 51c | 27.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed OG | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 56c | 23.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -15.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Fire Flux Esports | 58c | 21.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ad…6b2fbacked Fire Flux Esports | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -9.5wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group DOG won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 1 WinnerOG won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.