CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8478a4cab3605565de778a7f9e8ee0c0ea31cffb890467810165b4aaa651193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Fire Flux Esports, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 529$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.29 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Fire Flux Esports | 68c | 452.89$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 353 | 42.8%151 W · 202 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Fire Flux Esports | 25c | 447.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.27 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed OG | 78c | 369.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Fire Flux Esports | 24c | 334.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a6ecbacked OG | 79c | 240.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed OG | 75c | 235$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed OG | 29c | 226$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed OG | 65c | 217.95$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 1,377 | 66.4%914 W · 463 L | +77.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fire Flux Esports | 26c | 217.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fire Flux Esports | 55c | 203.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed OG | 27c | 136.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 624 | 48.2%301 W · 323 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed OG | 75c | 135.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked OG | 54c | 128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked OG | 40c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked OG | 21c | 83.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 76.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…330cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 80c | 65.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked OG | 75c | 64.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 208 | 54.8%114 W · 94 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked OG | 77c | 62.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed OG | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4275…7c49backed OG | 74c | 41.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed OG | 52c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…b4e9backed OG | 74c | 30.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed OG | 60c | 28.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed OG | 74c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 443 | 44%195 W · 248 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fire Flux Esports | 76c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked OG | 75c | 23.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed OG | 77c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,121 | 42.5%476 W · 645 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group DOG won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 1 WinnerOG won
- Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)Fire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.