CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed3d9269425d1b4e39c8f1f88b90577d6f3e1324484d403d0fe292a2c2d66a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Fire Flux Esports, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Fire Flux Esports | 17c | 6,692$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.64 | 95 | 65.3%62 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 21c | 2,202$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.67 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked OG | 79c | 1,516$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.16 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…07d7backed Fire Flux Esports | 1c | 1,179$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Fire Flux Esports | 24c | 804.92$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 1,605 | 52.6%845 W · 760 L | +57.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed OG | 76c | 662.24$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.94 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked OG | 70c | 558.44$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed OG | 78c | 499.12$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fire Flux Esports | 42c | 490.48$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fire Flux Esports | 36c | 490.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…9cb5backed OG | 76c | 467.2$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Fire Flux Esports | 30c | 454$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 2,520 | 43%1,084 W · 1,436 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked OG | 57c | 395.67$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Fire Flux Esports | 26c | 312.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 620 | 48.2%299 W · 321 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 273.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Fire Flux Esports | 21c | 262.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 835 | 56.2%469 W · 366 L | +31.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed OG | 79c | 243.48$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 482 | 51.7%249 W · 233 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 42c | 221$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…72febacked OG | 71c | 208.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed OG | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 805 | 42.2%340 W · 465 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed OG | 67c | 198.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 676 | 45%304 W · 372 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed OG | 80c | 187.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 42c | 185.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 3,165 | 45.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L | -74.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked OG | 71c | 185.06$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 4,897 | 37.4%1,832 W · 3,065 L | -245.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fire Flux Esports | 21c | 174.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed Fire Flux Esports | 30c | 167.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Fire Flux Esports | 28c | 162.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fire Flux Esports | 42c | 159.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed OG | 74c | 131.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 490 | 50.6%248 W · 242 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…4a81backed Fire Flux Esports | 12c | 127.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…32c8backed Fire Flux Esports | 13c | 118.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked OG | 66c | 112.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 382 | 69.4%265 W · 117 L | +30.8wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked OG | 63c | 85.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked OG | 68c | 77.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…caf8backed Fire Flux Esports | 25c | 76.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Fire Flux Esports | 41c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Fire Flux Esports | 29c | 74.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,084 | 47%979 W · 1,105 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…e949backed OG | 58c | 74.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed OG | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed OG | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 519 | 69.2%359 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…4a2abacked OG | 70c | 55.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…94d0backed Fire Flux Esports | 34c | 52.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed OG | 70c | 51.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 789 | 52%410 W · 379 L | +26.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Fire Flux Esports | 24c | 50.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fire Flux Esports | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,567 | 29.8%467 W · 1,100 L | -86.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed OG | 62c | 42.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | +15.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed OG | 72c | 41.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 409 | 71.9%294 W · 115 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed OG | 80c | 41.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed OG | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,062 | 42.2%448 W · 614 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked OG | 69c | 35.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,034 | 54.9%568 W · 466 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fire Flux Esports | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 690 | 41.9%289 W · 401 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…e9cebacked OG | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 182 | 81.3%148 W · 34 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed OG | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed OG | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 285 | 61.1%174 W · 111 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked OG | 78c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 169 | 67.5%114 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe6…13e3backed OG | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked OG | 60c | 18.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 521 | 44.7%233 W · 288 L | -21.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed OG | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 607 | 53.9%327 W · 280 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed OG | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 735 | 48.4%356 W · 379 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 1 WinnerOG won
- Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs OG - Map 2 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Map Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)Fire Flux Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.