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Bundesliga · resolved market

SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6619…703ebacked Over38c395.79$150 inLost-$15018958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Over36c216$77 inLost-$76.974047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c194.59$144 inWon+$50.223,28842.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L-74.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Under64c137$88 inWon+$49.323748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over25c132.86$33 inLost-$33.116532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under61c121.79$74 inWon+$47.51,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Over37c119.46$44 inLost-$44.25541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over39c105.92$41 inLost-$41.3115847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under62c91.46$57 inWon+$34.361,10850.5%560 W · 548 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under65c79$51 inWon+$27.654042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under66c40.09$27 inWon+$13.491,31540.6%534 W · 781 L-44.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under62c33.39$21 inWon+$12.6786032.7%281 W · 579 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Under62c33.3$21 inWon+$12.572147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Under61c29.51$18 inWon+$11.513759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under62c26.38$16 inWon+$10.083961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under62c26.38$16 inWon+$10.086860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16fe…9496backed Over40c25$10 inLost-$1015854.4%86 W · 72 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under59c24.39$14 inWon+$104746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under62c16.64$10 inWon+$6.282853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Under62c16.64$10 inWon+$6.282759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.