Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7989e4e702234adc564ec1e95b7c7f054633e019c24473c35c3005a6b9c4b89b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e9…2732backed Over | 61c | 3,929$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 1,595$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 61c | 1,454$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 775.9$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 771.8$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 59c | 512.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 43c | 465.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.81 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 390$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.25 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 38c | 267.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 39c | 267.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.31 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 26c | 246.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 245$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 14c | 242.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 41c | 208.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 64c | 143$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 127.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 111.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 58c | 109.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 57c | 106.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…298bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 41c | 83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 57c | 71.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 55c | 61.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 42c | 46.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Over | 53c | 33.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 42c | 26.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 59c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…75c5backed Over | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.