Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb379b4b882540cbef4f3400334a3aa29eb93a130b901a8e27371a2ca0c5df726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 9,000$4,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,491.79 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 6,773$4,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.36 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 5,543$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,768.3 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 4,502$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,285$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.77 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 490.38$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 46c | 440.8$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 181$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 35c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 50c | 21.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 132 | 58.3%77 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Nacional (-1.5)Casa Pia AC won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.