Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb39d3ddd9b90ba6bb221f90d887fce17abe40bb35e353484a68e9617d97a0f9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Jayhawksof Kansas Jayhawks, Syracuse Orange
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Kansas Jayhawks | 54c | 805.56$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 496$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.2 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Syracuse Orange | 48c | 402.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Syracuse Orange | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Syracuse Orange | 48c | 340.63$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Syracuse Orange | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Syracuse Orange | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Syracuse Orange | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Syracuse Orange | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Kansas Jayhawks | 53c | 60.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5)this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Syracuse OrangeKansas Jayhawks won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 144.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 145.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 146.5Under won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 147.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-3.5)Kansas Jayhawks won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)Kansas Jayhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.