Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3abe8e046e681635f22e99d16993140a3147da4144d7bf12ed6812d5596b49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 223.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 71c | 154.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 34c | 148.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 110.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 107.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 74.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 71.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 46c | 68.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 64.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 39c | 50.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 41.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 60c | 39.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 38.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 61c | 29.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 26.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…0d83backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 63c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.