NFL · resolved market
Will the Bengals beat the Giants by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb40b62c8218b4a5c69aa919fcad41768a6ffb779ecdd3fbe012686c682e6eaa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bengals, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Giants | 47c | 6,900$3,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,212.5 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bengals | 55c | 4,448$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.35 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Bengals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Giants | 49c | 1,812$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bengals | 52c | 1,000$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.15 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Bengals | 52c | 607.69$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.77 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bengals | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Bengals | 55c | 385.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bengals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Giants | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Bengals | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Giants | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Giants | 46c | 94.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Bengals | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Bengals | 53c | 54.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Giants | 51c | 53.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Bengals | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Giants | 50c | 33.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Bengals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bengals beat the Giants by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the Bears beat the Jaguars by 2 or more points?Bears won
- Will the Buccaneers beat the Saints by 4 or more points?Buccaneers won
- Will the Chargers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?Chargers won
- Will the Falcons beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Lions beat the Cowboys by 3 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Packers beat the Cardinals by 6 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Commanders by 8 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Steelers beat the Raiders by 4 or more points?Steelers won
- Will the Texans beat the Patriots by 8 or more points?Texans won
- Will the Titans beat the Colts by 3 or more points?Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.