NFL · resolved market
Will the Chargers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x944d0a36d3bee9938708c34f94f95e91773d785deb706cb7b8c22c7b3eca84c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chargers, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Broncos | 46c | 1,028$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.38 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Chargers | 54c | 592.41$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.51 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Chargers | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Broncos | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Chargers | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Chargers | 52c | 103.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Broncos | 43c | 66.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Chargers | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed Chargers | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9c…2c98backed Chargers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chargers beat the Broncos by 3 or more points?this page
- Will the Bears beat the Jaguars by 2 or more points?Bears won
- Will the Bengals beat the Giants by 4 or more points?Bengals won
- Will the Buccaneers beat the Saints by 4 or more points?Buccaneers won
- Will the Falcons beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Falcons won
- Will the Lions beat the Cowboys by 3 or more points?Lions won
- Will the Packers beat the Cardinals by 6 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Ravens beat the Commanders by 8 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Steelers beat the Raiders by 4 or more points?Steelers won
- Will the Texans beat the Patriots by 8 or more points?Texans won
- Will the Titans beat the Colts by 3 or more points?Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.