Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42507b9c1b38fb8359724c2a7165f34f1764ce4d67e7e30d146512b459464fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 239.8$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 201.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 161.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 152.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 57c | 143.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 137.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 122.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 122.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 50c | 104.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 85.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 73.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 39c | 60.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 58.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 58.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 38c | 54.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 48c | 50.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 65c | 39.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 34.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 33.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 31.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 69c | 31.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 45c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…f03abacked Yes | 69c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 28.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 64c | 28.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…20e0backed Yes | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 70c | 25.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 61c | 25.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 59c | 23.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 75c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 62c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.