Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Diane Parry vs Marta Kostyuk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43acb9ceaf9212b4f6bbc38f6cbed13334cd4f675bbaa5b8850b756fc277e8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Parry, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Parry | 51c | 2,226$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.39 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Kostyuk | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Parry | 49c | 1,499$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.72 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Kostyuk | 45c | 1,250$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.5 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Parry | 47c | 1,074$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Parry | 47c | 508.13$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Kostyuk | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kostyuk | 75c | 440$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Parry | 47c | 434.65$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Parry | 23c | 432.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Kostyuk | 49c | 427$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.02 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Parry | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Kostyuk | 77c | 357.14$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Kostyuk | 55c | 249.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kostyuk | 45c | 247.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Kostyuk | 67c | 204.29$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Kostyuk | 61c | 190$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kostyuk | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Kostyuk | 44c | 163.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Parry | 25c | 156.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Kostyuk | 57c | 152.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kostyuk | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Kostyuk | 63c | 119.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Parry | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Parry | 49c | 96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kostyuk | 74c | 95.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Kostyuk | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Parry | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kostyuk | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4d8ebacked Kostyuk | 77c | 75.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Parry | 52c | 67.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Parry | 66c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Parry | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kostyuk | 42c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Kostyuk | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Parry | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Parry | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Parry | 49c | 32.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.