Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44d3c8179ed735e1ca97b4a994b285dcf0e4b8b19b3b9ffefea2a7dbccff94d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Under | 61c | 11,467$6,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,478.69 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 62c | 4,766$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.93 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Over | 39c | 2,524$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 38c | 2,431$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.68 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Over | 39c | 1,981$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.18 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Over | 39c | 1,763$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.58 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Over | 38c | 1,753$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 39c | 1,456$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.87 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Over | 39c | 1,350$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.16 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…2224backed Over | 39c | 799.62$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.85 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 38c | 613.15$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Over | 39c | 582.98$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Under | 63c | 449.69$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Over | 39c | 429.82$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 63c | 395.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed Over | 39c | 360.31$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…654bbacked Over | 38c | 228.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…7653backed Over | 39c | 151.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Over | 38c | 90.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Over | 39c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…3ce5backed Over | 39c | 49.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…1145backed Under | 63c | 33.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 41c | 27.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 61c | 20.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 793 | 45.4%360 W · 433 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 64c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049d…cc0dbacked Under | 64c | 17.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)JD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 WinnerJD Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.