TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d82…3847backed Bilibili Gaming51c50,000$25,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,499.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked JD Gaming49c26,409$12,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,468.7267056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked JD Gaming49c19,563$9,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,977.381,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed JD Gaming49c14,541$7,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,415.9112850%64 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked JD Gaming49c7,555$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.2537245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Bilibili Gaming51c7,463$3,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,806.0296048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Bilibili Gaming51c6,908$3,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,523.1522624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Bilibili Gaming52c4,285$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.6837641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Bilibili Gaming51c4,053$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.171,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed JD Gaming48c4,018$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.451,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bilibili Gaming51c3,478$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.847736.4%28 W · 49 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked JD Gaming48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56070456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Bilibili Gaming52c2,168$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.2852538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed JD Gaming49c2,036$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.6515148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbea…8e58backed JD Gaming49c2,036$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.231376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+53.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Bilibili Gaming50c1,935$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.2966437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Bilibili Gaming51c1,778$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.545545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed JD Gaming50c1,455$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.576953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed JD Gaming49c1,454$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.5930050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed JD Gaming39c1,228$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.918336.1%30 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed JD Gaming47c1,211$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.771,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked JD Gaming49c1,039$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.7125447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Bilibili Gaming1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1317610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f0…c7a9backed Bilibili Gaming51c951.57$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.33441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb188…1b06backed Bilibili Gaming52c933.85$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.68852.3%46 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Bilibili Gaming50c777$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.51,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Bilibili Gaming51c749.99$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.516045.6%73 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Bilibili Gaming51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1839541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked JD Gaming37c520.98$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9811435.1%40 W · 74 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Bilibili Gaming77c512.67$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.4763458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c65…4f24backed Bilibili Gaming51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2557657.9%44 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Bilibili Gaming58c491.21$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5914429.2%42 W · 102 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Bilibili Gaming64c459.02$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.5110351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Bilibili Gaming54c431.69$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9324656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Bilibili Gaming60c420.37$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.8255744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Bilibili Gaming62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24855750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Bilibili Gaming51c380.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1220649.5%102 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Bilibili Gaming52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.248647.7%41 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f6…d6b6backed Bilibili Gaming57c341.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.432828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0bd…f2bdbacked JD Gaming47c309.5$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.289635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked JD Gaming41c307.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.992,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed JD Gaming49c293.59$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.7392342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed JD Gaming47c280$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.61,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked JD Gaming49c274.48$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9826049.2%128 W · 132 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked JD Gaming49c271.43$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4312454%67 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5559…2bd2backed Bilibili Gaming77c256.36$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2321141.2%87 W · 124 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed JD Gaming48c227.23$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1696054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Bilibili Gaming51c215.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.891952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+103.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked JD Gaming50c198.85$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.4348143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked JD Gaming49c198.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2279345.4%360 W · 433 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed JD Gaming49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.91,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb1…b580backed JD Gaming49c194.36$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.135152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Bilibili Gaming27c170$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4643233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7421…ae44backed Bilibili Gaming67c168.77$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8816356.4%92 W · 71 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…1145backed JD Gaming49c165.44$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.084358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x069b…e8afbacked JD Gaming31c156.32$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.46048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Bilibili Gaming27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2957222.7%130 W · 442 L-48.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked JD Gaming43c122.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2433124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked JD Gaming49c119.18$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0349346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9e…f670backed Bilibili Gaming52c116.54$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.63046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed JD Gaming50c116.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.212834.4%44 W · 84 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda43…521fbacked JD Gaming49c115.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.851030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked JD Gaming48c113.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.863646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed JD Gaming49c112.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.061,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked JD Gaming41c110.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4910949.5%54 W · 55 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked Bilibili Gaming51c104.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.025952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Bilibili Gaming53c103.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0251247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked Bilibili Gaming51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5153829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81cf…9227backed Bilibili Gaming51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517556%42 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed JD Gaming47c99.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9950455%277 W · 227 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Bilibili Gaming52c98.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2428655.9%160 W · 126 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffd…38f6backed Bilibili Gaming51c95.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa709…ac1abacked JD Gaming33c88.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+207.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming52c84.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.710652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Bilibili Gaming52c74.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8550647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed JD Gaming47c70.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.492,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Bilibili Gaming76c64.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2982161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0b…612abacked JD Gaming49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2744046.4%204 W · 236 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8088…24dabacked JD Gaming50c58.2$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.121140.8%86 W · 125 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Bilibili Gaming44c56.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6442124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xca3c…1717backed JD Gaming49c47.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed JD Gaming43c45.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.882,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked JD Gaming28c43.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.496535.4%23 W · 42 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+44.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdefd…afbcbacked Bilibili Gaming56c43.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.239538.9%37 W · 58 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Bilibili Gaming69c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9841651.2%213 W · 203 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked JD Gaming49c38.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.781,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed JD Gaming40c38.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Bilibili Gaming51c38.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4176047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e2e…c9cbbacked Bilibili Gaming52c35.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.714742.2%62 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3323…6358backed Bilibili Gaming52c32.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.711341.6%47 W · 66 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e75…0dd7backed Bilibili Gaming70c30.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0533151.7%171 W · 160 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ac3…8fb0backed JD Gaming49c30.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.341968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8f7…7eadbacked JD Gaming49c29.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1318846.3%87 W · 101 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9f…7e5dbacked Bilibili Gaming52c28.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5720463.2%129 W · 75 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed JD Gaming50c27.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6736047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Bilibili Gaming74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07e3…37b1backed Bilibili Gaming76c25.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.462433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Bilibili Gaming55c20.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.113930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x941e…9775backed Bilibili Gaming52c19.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.117067.1%114 W · 56 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.